Bart Blokland

Rethinking the role of Scenario-Based Simulation Exercises for strengthening Pandemic Preparedness in the Netherlands

Health, Care & Governance / Pandemic & Disaster Preparedness Center, Erasmus University Rotterdam / Erasmus Medical Center 

Supervisors: prof. dr. Roland Bal, dr. Anja Schreijer, dr. Charlotte Waltz

Background

I have a BA in History and MA in Ancient History at the Utrecht University. During my masters I specialized in Ancient and Environmental History, especially the concepts of resilience and vulnerability of past societies during disasters and epidemics. I’m currently employed at the Pandemic and Disaster Preparedness Center as a PhD candidate. Next to my research, I am also involved in the design and development of scenario-based exercises within the research line Integrated Science for Policy and the UNITY project. Furthermore I’m also part of the education team within the PDPC in the coordination and development of an interdisciplinary minor program for bachelor students aimed at Pandemic and Disaster Preparedness.

Content

Scenario-based exercises have been a structural part of pandemic preparedness and preparedness planning for the past few decades. These exercises have proven to enhance understanding of emergency protocols and plans, improve collaboration, clarify individual and organisational roles in crisis response, identify knowledge and knowhow gaps and can serve as a tool to incorporate uncertainty within pandemic planning. However, various limitations and challenges have also been identified. The long term effectiveness of emergency exercise as a training opportunity is still inconclusive. Additionally, evaluation methods are often inconsistent, especially for measuring organsational and behavioral outcomes. Although many of these exercises provide valuable insights, integration into practice and policy is often not incorporated or very fragmented. Most importantly, even when recommendations are incorporated into policy and practice, their effectiveness to an actual event remains uncertain, as they are often the result of specific scenario-oriented exercises, unable to deal with the unpredictability of future outbreaks.

My research aims to study scenario-based exercises from various dimensions and perspectives. It examines the role and impact of scenario-based exercises within the Dutch context since the late 1990s and investigates how future scenario-based exercises can enhance pandemic preparedness without narrowing down on specific scenario’s or pathogens. Furthermore this research focusses on scenario-based exercises from a methodological viewpoint functioning as boundary object and research method, including using exercises as an iterative development method. A central element of this research will focus on how scenario-based exercises contribute to enhancing preparedness through learning and learning retention on an individual, organisational, and institutional level. By integrating these various perspectives and dimensions of scenario-based exercises, this research aims to research and rethink scenario-based simulation exercises to effectively strengthen pandemic preparedness in the Netherlands.

Publications

Waltz, C.N.M., Overbosch, F.W., Blokland, B., Boer, J. de, Dykstra, P.A., Timmermans, D.R.M., Weel, B. ter, Bruin, M. de, Koopmans, M., Cesuroglu, T., Schreijer, A. (2025), Towards Integrated Advice for Pandemic Policies: Insights from a Qualitative Explorative Study on Avian Influenza Simulation Exercises in The Netherlands, Social Science & Medicine, 118745